College Football win probability
Independent power ranking (Elo, in points versus an average team) and the starting-quarterback report (PPA per play, shrunk toward average by sample size). These feed the pregame number before injuries and the betting line.
Where each number comes from: power ratings in points, the injury adjustment, the quarterback matchup, the betting line, Kalshi's price, and the players behind the injury figure.
Roster news
Bets where the ground moved: a starting QB benched, a star scratched, or the
model / Kalshi price swinging away from where a bet opened. Exit flags a game you had value on
that has turned against you — the market usually reprices on roster news before the model does. Tell the
app what you're actually on by editing data/state/positions.json.